15 May 2025
MAIB Interim report: Foundering of yacht Bayesian, with the loss of seven lives, 0.5 nautical miles south-east of Porticello, Italy
Interim report on the investigation into the foundering of yacht Bayesian, with the loss of seven lives, 0.5 nautical miles south-east of Porticello, Italy on 19 August 2024.
Summary:
On 19 August 2024, the UK registered large sailing yacht Bayesian foundered in high winds 0.5 nautical miles south-east of the port of Porticello, Italy. There were 12 guests and 10 crew on board at the time the vessel sank. Six of the guests and one crew member died.
The key safety issues identified were:
This is an interim report. The circumstances of the accident have not yet been subjected to a full analysis from which to draw conclusions and identify safety issues. However, the initial studies commissioned by the MAIB show that Bayesian may have been vulnerable to high winds, and that such winds may have been evident at the time of the accident.
Safety recommendations:
- No safety recommendations are made.
Said Andrew Moll, Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents:
“The interim report presents a desktop study of the facts as we know them. The study has reviewed the yacht’s stability, the likely local weather conditions at the time, and the effect of that weather on the yacht. The findings indicate that the extreme wind experienced by Bayesian was sufficient to knock the yacht over. Further, once the yacht had heeled beyond an angle of 70° the situation was irrecoverable.
"The results will be refined as the investigation proceeds, and more information becomes available.”
Contact Information
Anna Withrington
Head of External Communications Air, Marine and Rail Accident Investigation Branches
Accident Investigation Branches (AIBs)
01932 440015
Anna.Withrington@dft.gov.uk
Notes to editors
An embargoed copy of this interim report is available for media to download below. The report will be published on the MAIB website at 00:01am.
About the Interim Report
This interim report contains information from the investigation completed to date, including a simplified narrative of events; factual detail and analysis of the environmental conditions; details of Bayesian’s stability, as documented; and a
summary of a study into how the yacht was likely impacted by the environmental conditions experienced.
The ‘desktop’ assessment of Bayesian’s capsize is based on available documents and information that will be validated and, as necessary, iterated and improved following detailed examination of the wreck once it is salvaged.
Readers are cautioned that there is the possibility that new evidence may become available that might alter the circumstances as depicted in this report.
Image credits
Image should be credited to: Karsten Börner - Skipper Of Sir Robert Baden Powell.
All other images must be credited to the MAIB or the stated third party.
About the Marine Accident Investigation branch
The role of the MAIB is to contribute to safety at sea by determining the causes and circumstances of marine accidents and working with others to reduce the likelihood of such accidents recurring in the future. Accident investigations are conducted solely in the interest of future safety. The Branch does not apportion blame and it does not establish liability, enforce laws or carry out prosecutions.
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